A Retrospective on “Huge UFOs Near the Sun”
©
Last January, 2010, there were many stories about the huge UFOs near the sun that appeared in some of NASA’s sun images. (For reasons that will be explained later, I am going to name these hypothetical UFOs “Vulcan UFOs”.) Recall that NASA’s response at the time was that these images were an image processing software artifact of some sort and that they really weren’t physically there. NASA’s press release on the matter was poorly written and used terms that only a software writer for image processing might understand. It may have been designed to technologically overwhelm the public to a) make it sound believable and b) humble the public into silence. It was an amateurish attempt at damage control which may have been the truth, but the event deserved a better response than NASA gave it. It did not explain why these spheres surrounding the sun looked perfectly round with highlights. One would have expected the software error that caused these planet sized UFOs to appear and look so perfect would have resulted in a smudge or scribble or some other visual form other than a perfect sphere that was consistent with everything else that was in the image, including the sun. Their response was very dissatisfying and dismissive and did not put the “nail in the coffin” on this event.*
Since the time when “Huge UFOs Near the Sun” was written in January, 2010, more reports have come in which are available on YouTube about the same thing. Most of these reports deal with the January, 2010, news story, but a few of the reports claim that these large UFO sightings are still occurring. The short clip at http://www.cyberspaceorbit.com/behemoth.htm, allegedly filmed 10 years before the huge UFO story, shows an image that looks the same thing that was shown in the January 2010 video. So maybe these are real objects and NASA is contributing to the UFO coverup. {Digression: Does it bother you that many UFO videos, stories, and photos are not date stamped and are about old events that are being recycled and put “back on the market” as if they were new? Sometimes it’s hard to tell what is new and what is not.}
The rest of this writeup will discuss these huge UFO images in light of historical information for images that have been seen transiting the sun.
Morris Jessup theorized in his book, “The Case for the UFOs” c1955, that one time sun transiting bodies are really very large UFOs near the earth. These were mistaken by astronomers who reported them as being near the sun, but in reality they are huge UFOs most likely in the upper reaches of our atmosphere. This explains why only one astronomer sees them and are not seen by any of the other astronomers who regularly observe the sun (quantity unknown). This sounds like a pretty good explanation, but there might be other explanations as well.
The book, “Wonders in the Sky” c2009 by Jacques Vallee and Chris Aubeck, is a compilation of 500 ancient celestial sightings ranging from 1460 b.c.e. to 1880 c.e. The 500, by the way, have been filtered by the authors from numerous large bodies of sightings as being the most likely to be true and the most representative of having analyzable merit. About 80% of the data that they analyzed was not used/rejected for inclusion into their book. One frequent category of sightings in this book are transits of the sun by unknown objects. These were addressed by Morris Jesseup’s book, “The Case for the UFO” mentioned previously. In fact, their frequency in history was one of Jessup’s motivations in writing his book in the first place. In Vallee’s/Aubeck’s book, 25 of the 500 events were such transits. Transits are nice astronomical events as they are invariably recorded by excellent professional and amateur astronomers, and not by wild eyed nut jobs. Unfortunately, many transits can’t be verified, because they appear to be singular events. If caused by orbiting, passive celestial objects, they should be reoccurring at predictable intervals, but these 25 were not reoccurring.
Almost all of the transits listed in the Vallee/Aubeck book were observed using a telescope. The telescope was invented in about 1608. Galileo first applied its use to look at the sun in 1609 and promptly found that sunspots were on the surface of the sun and were not transits. Sunspots had been seen numerous times before the invention of the telescope. However, most if not all transits have been observed after the invention of the telescope. The 25 transits in “Wonders of the Sky” account for 11% of the 227 odd celestial occurrences listed in this book seen after the telescope’s invention. The sun transit data from the book is as follows:
Sighting No. Listed in Book Year
273 1661
347 1762
349 1762
352 1764
364 1791
365 1793
370 1798
376 1802
377 1802
396 1819
398 1820
402 1822
420 1836
422 1837
425 1839
430 1845
438 1847
444 1849
446 1849
448 1849
451 1850
456 1850
462 1859
490 1876
496 1879
-- 1880 (from internet)
-- 1883 “ “
-- 1888 “ “
-- 1989 “ “
By simple visual inspection of the preceding dates, you can note that from 1661 to 1762, there were no unknown transits of the sun, at least recorded in the “Wonders of the Sky” book.
There are periods of time in history where almost no sunspots were observed. One such period was from 1645 to 1715 and is known as the Maunder Minimum. The coincidence of this period with the 100 year absence of unknown transits from 1661 to 1762 is very highly suggestive that many of the unknown transits outside of this period were sunspots, and not objects crossing in front of the sun. However, it is surprising that these unknown sun transits would be mistaken sunspots because most of these discoverers of these sightings were amateur and professional astronomers who undoubtedly knew about sunspots, even in the 1700s. Also mitigating the mistaken sunspot theory is that there was also a sunspot minimum period from roughly 1795 to 1830 known as the Dalton Minimum during which we see that there was no corresponding reduction in unknown transits. On the opposite side of the coin, there were no unknown transits recorded from 1888 to 1989 (internet search) and there were plenty of sunspots during that century, again showing that misidentification of sunspots did not occur then either. One last observation is needed here: Most of these transits were observed as one time events on one day. The sun rotates once every 27 days, so a sunspot could take as long as 13.5 days to get from one side to the other. Some sunspots last only a few hours, but others can last as long as 6 months. This means an astronomer could see some sunspots over a several day period on average, and not just for a single day event. Therefore, all in all, these transits were probably not sunspots. Then what were they?
Well, they could be astronomer errors. We all remember the astronomer who “saw” all those canals on Mars. Another explanation that I saw was that they were “weak comets”. What is a weak comet? I can only guess that it is either a captured comet in orbit around the sun or it is one that has come in from space so many times on its elliptical orbit that it no longer can outgas like it used to. The average comet is about 6 miles diameter. We are talking about earth sized UFOs here, and the earth is 8000 miles diameter. A comet would have to outgas a lot to expand its apparent size to earth size, but a “weak” comet which has expended its volatile gaseous material load would not present a visual close to earth size. (Of course, a captured comet would have expended its gaseous material content early in its captured revolutions around the sun, so that would not be the explanation either.)
Around 1860, it was theorized that there was a planet even closer to the sun than Mercury, and it was given the name Vulcan. That is why I am calling these apparent huge UFOs near the sun “Vulcan UFOs”. The planet Vulcan was invented not because of these transit sightings, but because of variations in Mercury’s orbit thought to be due to Vulcan’s gravitational effect. We now know that the perturbations of Mercury’s orbit were due to the Einstein-predicted bending of light rays as they pass near the sun. Therefore, as the reasoning goes, if all of Mercury’s orbit variations are now explained by light ray bending due to the sun’s gravitation, then there must be nothing of large mass between Mercury and the sun. But if there were earth sized UFOs near the sun, they might not gravitationally affect Mercury because as we know UFOs need not obey anything about the law of gravity.
There is another historical phenomenon in the solar system which also supports the Vulcan UFO theory. There have been many objects seen rotating around Venus as well, yet Venus is known to be moonless. There’s been so many that this Venusian satellite was given the name “Neith”. Once again, from “Wonders in the Sky”, the sightings are as follows:
Sighting No. Listed in Book Year
287 1672
300 1686
332 1740
342 1749
344 1761
345 1761
350 1764
351 1764
355 1768
404 1823
If the Vulcan UFOs were real, then why couldn’t one or more of them occasionally fly to Venus for some mission to be identified as its moon, Neith, on rare occasions?
The information contained in “Wonders in the Sky” adds a little more believability to the story of “Huge UFOs Near the Sun”. Maybe those monstrous Vulcan UFOs really are there. For sure, if they are there, NASA will be doing a better job of altering the data to show that they aren’t, and we won’t be getting much more proof from them one way or the other to answer this question. If any of these old transit sightings really are of those earth sized Vulcan UFOs near the sun, then we can take some comfort that over the last 350 years or more that they have been there, they have made no moves to interfere with us and our planet.
* (Dr.) Joseph B. Gurman, NASA STEREO Project Scientist responded to the images of giant UFOs near the Sun with the following technical explanation (reported January 21, 2010). Dr. Gurman wrote, "What you're seeing is the difference between "beacon mode" (near real-time, heavily compressed, binned [I believe 512 x 512 or smaller]) images and normal playback telemetry images (2048 x 2048 native mode, less heavily but still lossily compressed).
On January 18, at 21:47 UT, the 'central data recorder' at DSN, that stores all the playback data from all the missions DSN supports, failed. A backup CDR took over, but apparently started working on data from January 10, instead of just the four previous hours, as designed. (The last I heard, the DSN engineers don't understand why, but it certainly sounds like a software issue.) For some reason, DSN is unable to reset a pointer and say, please start processing from this time instead of that time. So we, and all the other missions supported by DSN, are waiting for our playback data from January 18 and all following days. As soon as we get it, and the instrument teams have reformatted the telemetry into scientifically useful formats (that allow, for instance, making SECCHI EUVI data into images), we will post the images and other STEREO browse data in the normal places. And no, I don't know why DSN designed such an inflexible CDR system. I suspect they may modify it after this experience."
Thursday, January 20, 2011
SIGHTINGS: KNOWNS VS UNKNOWNS
SIGHTINGS: KNOWNS VS UNKNOWNS
©
This writeup will be about that category of aerial sightings classified as “unknowns”. As you all know, it is the “unknown” category which contains the UFOs. It will end with a discussion of nighttime versus daytime “unknowns”.
Over the years different collections of strange aerial phenomena have been compiled and studied with the objective of understanding them all. What always results is a small residue of sightings that cannot be explained through our familiar explanations. This is the “unknown” category. It can also be called the “UAP” category, for Unexplained Aerial Phenomena. UFOs make up the largest part of the UAP, or unknown, category.
UFO debunkers and coverup personnel strive to make the unknown category be as small as possible. If it can be gotten down to a few percent, then most people will be satisfied to attribute that small portion to be an acceptable error margin that must be explainable by conventional means and then forget about it, no further investigation required. That is obviously the strategy behind the Project Blue Book Special Report #14 (hereafter referred to as “PBBSR14”) introduction where it states in its 3rd sentence that “of the 131 sightings reported during the first four months of 1955 only three per cent were listed as unknown.” Of course, that writer does not mention that after Edward Ruppelt left Bluebook in late ’53, the whole project changed to a debunking goal of 100% conventional explanations of those unknowns simply by force fitting the explanation to the sighting, often resulting in ludicrous and embarrassingly stupid explanations.
Stanton Friedman points out that the PBBSR14 data shows that the unknown category percentage is 21.5% and that number is published right within the body of the report. Such a large percentage cannot be ignored and explained away as an acceptable margin of error. Later on in this writeup, this percentage will be revisited and changed by the Ufonalyzer to 16% (still very large) and it will be explained why this was done. And please be reminded that now we know that the best reports were always routed away from Blue Book for secret investigation, and these reports would have raised the percentage even higher if they had not been excluded. Furthermore, those numerous cases which had been intentionally force fitted into the “known” category have never been retrieved from this category and placed back into the “unknown” category by any investigator, nor have they been quantified as far as this writer knows. This writer believes that other reports have published similar unknown percentages in the double digits as well. One exception is the COMETA report.
Early in 2010 when Leslie Kean released her book, “UFOs: Generals, Pilots and Government Officials Go on the Record”, she had several TV interviews in which she stated the unknown percentage was 5%. This percentage certainly is radically smaller than PBBSR14’s percentage. After reading reviews of her book and hearing what she said about it, the Ufonalyzer, although glad she wrote it, decided that he was not going to read it because it appeared to be another of the many fine books which list UFO encounters, interviews with high ranking, sometimes retired people, and which mention many of the official documents suggesting the reality of UFOs which we, as UFO believers, all are familiar with. In other words, it is written for the general public and those people who are deciding whether to believe in UFOs or not. Since that decision, chunks of her book’s text are now on Google Books, and these pieces verify the Ufonalyzer’s initial opinion. It is a very pleasant surprise, indeed, to see the positive impact that her book has caused in the UFO world, so we should all be grateful to her. Her book’s text gives every indication that she is using the COMETA report’s published percentage for its unknowns, which is 4-5% unknowns. It is this writer’s opinion that she should have used the percentage from PBBSR14 and not COMETA’s percentage because the 5% figure is much too close to what most folks would agree is a small but acceptable measurement error. She would have been perfectly justified if she had done this because the PBBSR14 study is much more scientific than the COMETA study and covers a much bigger sample size. The only drawback would be that the PBBSR14 study is based on data ending in 1952, and the COMETA study uses much more contemporary data. But, given the success and impact of her book, this is a small point which need not be mentioned anymore.
The vast majority of sighting reports can be explained by many different phenomena. Most of these explanations are correct when honestly investigated and objectively applied to the sighting. Back in the day of Blue Book, the categories listed in the report are as follows:
Balloon
Astronomical
Aircraft
Light Phenomena (mirages, sun dogs, inversion layer images, distortions)
Birds
Clouds, dirt, etc
Psychological (fanatics, publicity seekers, imagination)
Insufficient Info
Unknown
Other (kites, contrails, fireworks, flares, rockets, small tornadoes)
Since Blue Book’s time, other additional and/or refined categories have come into existence. Do you recall TST, or Tectonic Strain Theory? This theory has two parts, both based on earth’s strata being under a pressure or bending force. Rock is crystalline in nature, so the force sets up piezoelectric voltages in the strained rock crystalline structure. The theory is that these voltages can ionize gases near the rocks and cause plasma balls to appear. The plasma balls look like UFOs. The second part is that the electric fields themselves can act directly on the brain and induce hallucinatory visions of things that aren’t there such as UFOs. Tectonic strain actually can cause lights that are seen prior to earthquakes, but no one has ever proven a plasma ball from tectonic strain. As an aside, famed debunker Philip Klass was a big plasma advocate. Another theory is mentioned elsewhere in this blog in which UFOs are the imaginary product of sexual maladjustment. Theories like these are little more than scientific masturbation which panders to the mainstream public and to the egos of the scientists who come up with such crap. Regarding plasmas, ball lightning is believed to exist and it IS a plasma ball. However, the average size of a landed UFO is usually 20 feet plus or minus, and the diameter of ball lightning is never more than a few feet, although one source says 8 feet. Ball lightning, if seen from a distance, could be mistaken for a UFO. There was a recent article on the internet whose title screamed “UFOs Explained.” The explanation was that it was one of the phenomena of sprites, jets and elves. Having seen videos of sprites and jets, this writer can tell you that this article was ridiculous. The Majestic Documents website contains the forward of a never-published book by Vernon Bowen. The CIA took it seriously and annotated it liberally. Bowen was a UFO debunker, and came up with simply impractical theories on the nature of UFOs (e.g. the Coanda effect.) Temperature inversion layers used to be used all the time to explain UFO sightings. Debunker and Majestic 12 agent Donald Menzel used to invoke this false explanation all the time. Although it is a real phenomenon, believer James MacDonald proved that Menzel’s frequent use of this explanation could not be possible in most of Menzel’s explanations. Menzel probably was aware that he was lying but hoped to dupe the public anyway. It is doubtful that he really believed in his own explanations. These are more examples of scientific masturbation.
As we inspect the categories used by the Blue Book investigators, we see “flares” in the “Other” category. This explanation has risen to be a major player in explanations these days. Some people believe that when a significant UFO event occurs, the military runs out and drops a bunch of flares to confuse the public into thinking that the UFO was flares all along (e.g. this possibly occurred during the Phoenix Lights incident.) A subset of the “flares” category in our modern times are Chinese lanterns.
We also see “fanatics” in the “Psychological” category. Fanatical religious explanations of UFOs have always been with us since the beginning, and it is kind of disappointing and sometimes frightening to see the large segment of UFO believers that this thinking still controls.
We now come the the second part of this writeup.
The Ufonalyzer has stated a couple of times in this blog that night sightings of UFOs are pretty useless because hardly any data can be extracted from them, and one is rarely sure that the night light isn’t something ordinary. Most UFO sightings occur at night. The following clever graphs from Vallee’s 1966 book, “The UFO Enigma” shows when most occur at night. (Type I and Type III sightings are Vallee’s own UFO classification system which never caught on like Hynek’s did. (This writer does not like either one because their categories are not mutually exclusive.)) This is followed by a histogram (Figure 41) from PBBSR14 which also clearly shows the same thing. The PBBSR14 data stops at 1952, and the Vallee graph was published in 1966.
Consider the following hypothetical daytime sighting. A large disc is seen flying by in broad daylight at a low speed. It stops to hover, witnessed by a few people, and then resumes its flight. What looks like windows can be seen around its periphery. This is a good sighting. This sighting would be hard to explain away by the categories listed earlier. Therefore, it probably would be listed as “unknown”. In other words, the better the data, the more likely it could not be force fit into conventional earthly categories, so it would wind up as “unknown” because it is so good. One can reason from this is that daytime sightings should have a higher percentage of “unknowns” than nighttime sightings because daytime sightings have the potential to yield far more data than nighttime. Let’s check out the Ufonalyzer’s opnion that daytime sightings yield a higher percentage of “unknowns” than nighttime by analyzing Figure 41 from the PBBSR14. This is the only set of data that this writer has seen which separates “known” and “unknown” by time of day.
The data from the histogram was analyzed by separating night from day along the horizontal axis. Daytime was selected as being from 6:30am to 6:30pm. There were 798 daytime sightings and 1348 nighttime sightings. Daytime “unknowns” were 128 and nighttime “unknowns” were 215. These numbers were counted off of the histograms. The percentage “unknowns” for daytime sightings therefore is 16.04%, and he percentage “unknowns” for nighttime sightings therefore is 15.95%. In other words, they’re equal. What??!! How can this be?? This shows that nighttime sightings are just as effective at yielding UFO sightings that hold up to analysis as the daytime does. This just does not make sense. It looks like from now on the Ufonalzyer will have to shut his piehole and stop criticizing all those nighttime UFO videos that are all over YouTube.
By the way, on page 10 of the PBBSR14 document, it states that the total of object sightings should be 2199 so this means that the count from the histogram should equal 2199. Instead, it equals 1348 + 798 = 2146 which is off by only 53 and is good counting accuracy from such a small graph.
Earlier it was mentioned that Stanton Friedman’s reporting on PBBSR14 came up with an “unknown” percentage of 21.5%. This is based on 3201 sightings (page ii of the PBBSR14.) Page 15 gives further data about these 3201 which filters the 3201 down to 2199 “unknowns”. This is because the 3201 contains double counting; e.g. if an “unknown” was sighted by, say, 2 witnesses, then that is counted as two “unknowns” in the 3201 sightings, but only counted as one “unknown” in the 2199 sightings. Similarly, if two UFOs were simultaneously spotted by one witness, then that sighting would count as two “unknowns” in the 3201 sightings.
In conclusion, although UFOs come in a variety of shapes and sizes, it is highly likely that we are observing only one phenomenon when they are seen. In this writer’s opinion it is the phenomenon of visiting extraterrestrial craft under intelligent control. Although a variety of explanations exist for curious phenomena which, after investigation, turn out to be the “knowns”, the residue (i.e. the “unknowns”) are very likely explained by only one phenomenon (i.e. the ETH.) If the totality of the UFO phenomenon is explained away with anything but the ETH, then that explanation requires many separate explanations all cobbled together. It is much simpler, cleaner, and more elegant, and therefore more believable to go with the ETH for the whole UFO explanation. With this you have one single explanation and not a collection of parts put forth by those who have obviously not studied the issue, and by some of whom who wish to display their erudition on their specialty, which is repugnant. However, even this writer admits that even the ETH is not adequate if one restricts the ETH to only one alien species visiting earth. It fails because of the huge variety of different craft that are seen. The variety of craft is far beyond what one would expect a single species to have designed for its mission on earth. The ETH fails until one hypothesizes several visiting species overlapping one another in their visitations. Fortunately, the additional data gleaned from Close Encounters of the Third Kind “proves” that there are many races visiting earth with crafts of many shapes and sizes.
©
This writeup will be about that category of aerial sightings classified as “unknowns”. As you all know, it is the “unknown” category which contains the UFOs. It will end with a discussion of nighttime versus daytime “unknowns”.
Over the years different collections of strange aerial phenomena have been compiled and studied with the objective of understanding them all. What always results is a small residue of sightings that cannot be explained through our familiar explanations. This is the “unknown” category. It can also be called the “UAP” category, for Unexplained Aerial Phenomena. UFOs make up the largest part of the UAP, or unknown, category.
UFO debunkers and coverup personnel strive to make the unknown category be as small as possible. If it can be gotten down to a few percent, then most people will be satisfied to attribute that small portion to be an acceptable error margin that must be explainable by conventional means and then forget about it, no further investigation required. That is obviously the strategy behind the Project Blue Book Special Report #14 (hereafter referred to as “PBBSR14”) introduction where it states in its 3rd sentence that “of the 131 sightings reported during the first four months of 1955 only three per cent were listed as unknown.” Of course, that writer does not mention that after Edward Ruppelt left Bluebook in late ’53, the whole project changed to a debunking goal of 100% conventional explanations of those unknowns simply by force fitting the explanation to the sighting, often resulting in ludicrous and embarrassingly stupid explanations.
Stanton Friedman points out that the PBBSR14 data shows that the unknown category percentage is 21.5% and that number is published right within the body of the report. Such a large percentage cannot be ignored and explained away as an acceptable margin of error. Later on in this writeup, this percentage will be revisited and changed by the Ufonalyzer to 16% (still very large) and it will be explained why this was done. And please be reminded that now we know that the best reports were always routed away from Blue Book for secret investigation, and these reports would have raised the percentage even higher if they had not been excluded. Furthermore, those numerous cases which had been intentionally force fitted into the “known” category have never been retrieved from this category and placed back into the “unknown” category by any investigator, nor have they been quantified as far as this writer knows. This writer believes that other reports have published similar unknown percentages in the double digits as well. One exception is the COMETA report.
Early in 2010 when Leslie Kean released her book, “UFOs: Generals, Pilots and Government Officials Go on the Record”, she had several TV interviews in which she stated the unknown percentage was 5%. This percentage certainly is radically smaller than PBBSR14’s percentage. After reading reviews of her book and hearing what she said about it, the Ufonalyzer, although glad she wrote it, decided that he was not going to read it because it appeared to be another of the many fine books which list UFO encounters, interviews with high ranking, sometimes retired people, and which mention many of the official documents suggesting the reality of UFOs which we, as UFO believers, all are familiar with. In other words, it is written for the general public and those people who are deciding whether to believe in UFOs or not. Since that decision, chunks of her book’s text are now on Google Books, and these pieces verify the Ufonalyzer’s initial opinion. It is a very pleasant surprise, indeed, to see the positive impact that her book has caused in the UFO world, so we should all be grateful to her. Her book’s text gives every indication that she is using the COMETA report’s published percentage for its unknowns, which is 4-5% unknowns. It is this writer’s opinion that she should have used the percentage from PBBSR14 and not COMETA’s percentage because the 5% figure is much too close to what most folks would agree is a small but acceptable measurement error. She would have been perfectly justified if she had done this because the PBBSR14 study is much more scientific than the COMETA study and covers a much bigger sample size. The only drawback would be that the PBBSR14 study is based on data ending in 1952, and the COMETA study uses much more contemporary data. But, given the success and impact of her book, this is a small point which need not be mentioned anymore.
The vast majority of sighting reports can be explained by many different phenomena. Most of these explanations are correct when honestly investigated and objectively applied to the sighting. Back in the day of Blue Book, the categories listed in the report are as follows:
Balloon
Astronomical
Aircraft
Light Phenomena (mirages, sun dogs, inversion layer images, distortions)
Birds
Clouds, dirt, etc
Psychological (fanatics, publicity seekers, imagination)
Insufficient Info
Unknown
Other (kites, contrails, fireworks, flares, rockets, small tornadoes)
Since Blue Book’s time, other additional and/or refined categories have come into existence. Do you recall TST, or Tectonic Strain Theory? This theory has two parts, both based on earth’s strata being under a pressure or bending force. Rock is crystalline in nature, so the force sets up piezoelectric voltages in the strained rock crystalline structure. The theory is that these voltages can ionize gases near the rocks and cause plasma balls to appear. The plasma balls look like UFOs. The second part is that the electric fields themselves can act directly on the brain and induce hallucinatory visions of things that aren’t there such as UFOs. Tectonic strain actually can cause lights that are seen prior to earthquakes, but no one has ever proven a plasma ball from tectonic strain. As an aside, famed debunker Philip Klass was a big plasma advocate. Another theory is mentioned elsewhere in this blog in which UFOs are the imaginary product of sexual maladjustment. Theories like these are little more than scientific masturbation which panders to the mainstream public and to the egos of the scientists who come up with such crap. Regarding plasmas, ball lightning is believed to exist and it IS a plasma ball. However, the average size of a landed UFO is usually 20 feet plus or minus, and the diameter of ball lightning is never more than a few feet, although one source says 8 feet. Ball lightning, if seen from a distance, could be mistaken for a UFO. There was a recent article on the internet whose title screamed “UFOs Explained.” The explanation was that it was one of the phenomena of sprites, jets and elves. Having seen videos of sprites and jets, this writer can tell you that this article was ridiculous. The Majestic Documents website contains the forward of a never-published book by Vernon Bowen. The CIA took it seriously and annotated it liberally. Bowen was a UFO debunker, and came up with simply impractical theories on the nature of UFOs (e.g. the Coanda effect.) Temperature inversion layers used to be used all the time to explain UFO sightings. Debunker and Majestic 12 agent Donald Menzel used to invoke this false explanation all the time. Although it is a real phenomenon, believer James MacDonald proved that Menzel’s frequent use of this explanation could not be possible in most of Menzel’s explanations. Menzel probably was aware that he was lying but hoped to dupe the public anyway. It is doubtful that he really believed in his own explanations. These are more examples of scientific masturbation.
As we inspect the categories used by the Blue Book investigators, we see “flares” in the “Other” category. This explanation has risen to be a major player in explanations these days. Some people believe that when a significant UFO event occurs, the military runs out and drops a bunch of flares to confuse the public into thinking that the UFO was flares all along (e.g. this possibly occurred during the Phoenix Lights incident.) A subset of the “flares” category in our modern times are Chinese lanterns.
We also see “fanatics” in the “Psychological” category. Fanatical religious explanations of UFOs have always been with us since the beginning, and it is kind of disappointing and sometimes frightening to see the large segment of UFO believers that this thinking still controls.
We now come the the second part of this writeup.
The Ufonalyzer has stated a couple of times in this blog that night sightings of UFOs are pretty useless because hardly any data can be extracted from them, and one is rarely sure that the night light isn’t something ordinary. Most UFO sightings occur at night. The following clever graphs from Vallee’s 1966 book, “The UFO Enigma” shows when most occur at night. (Type I and Type III sightings are Vallee’s own UFO classification system which never caught on like Hynek’s did. (This writer does not like either one because their categories are not mutually exclusive.)) This is followed by a histogram (Figure 41) from PBBSR14 which also clearly shows the same thing. The PBBSR14 data stops at 1952, and the Vallee graph was published in 1966.
Consider the following hypothetical daytime sighting. A large disc is seen flying by in broad daylight at a low speed. It stops to hover, witnessed by a few people, and then resumes its flight. What looks like windows can be seen around its periphery. This is a good sighting. This sighting would be hard to explain away by the categories listed earlier. Therefore, it probably would be listed as “unknown”. In other words, the better the data, the more likely it could not be force fit into conventional earthly categories, so it would wind up as “unknown” because it is so good. One can reason from this is that daytime sightings should have a higher percentage of “unknowns” than nighttime sightings because daytime sightings have the potential to yield far more data than nighttime. Let’s check out the Ufonalyzer’s opnion that daytime sightings yield a higher percentage of “unknowns” than nighttime by analyzing Figure 41 from the PBBSR14. This is the only set of data that this writer has seen which separates “known” and “unknown” by time of day.
The data from the histogram was analyzed by separating night from day along the horizontal axis. Daytime was selected as being from 6:30am to 6:30pm. There were 798 daytime sightings and 1348 nighttime sightings. Daytime “unknowns” were 128 and nighttime “unknowns” were 215. These numbers were counted off of the histograms. The percentage “unknowns” for daytime sightings therefore is 16.04%, and he percentage “unknowns” for nighttime sightings therefore is 15.95%. In other words, they’re equal. What??!! How can this be?? This shows that nighttime sightings are just as effective at yielding UFO sightings that hold up to analysis as the daytime does. This just does not make sense. It looks like from now on the Ufonalzyer will have to shut his piehole and stop criticizing all those nighttime UFO videos that are all over YouTube.
By the way, on page 10 of the PBBSR14 document, it states that the total of object sightings should be 2199 so this means that the count from the histogram should equal 2199. Instead, it equals 1348 + 798 = 2146 which is off by only 53 and is good counting accuracy from such a small graph.
Earlier it was mentioned that Stanton Friedman’s reporting on PBBSR14 came up with an “unknown” percentage of 21.5%. This is based on 3201 sightings (page ii of the PBBSR14.) Page 15 gives further data about these 3201 which filters the 3201 down to 2199 “unknowns”. This is because the 3201 contains double counting; e.g. if an “unknown” was sighted by, say, 2 witnesses, then that is counted as two “unknowns” in the 3201 sightings, but only counted as one “unknown” in the 2199 sightings. Similarly, if two UFOs were simultaneously spotted by one witness, then that sighting would count as two “unknowns” in the 3201 sightings.
In conclusion, although UFOs come in a variety of shapes and sizes, it is highly likely that we are observing only one phenomenon when they are seen. In this writer’s opinion it is the phenomenon of visiting extraterrestrial craft under intelligent control. Although a variety of explanations exist for curious phenomena which, after investigation, turn out to be the “knowns”, the residue (i.e. the “unknowns”) are very likely explained by only one phenomenon (i.e. the ETH.) If the totality of the UFO phenomenon is explained away with anything but the ETH, then that explanation requires many separate explanations all cobbled together. It is much simpler, cleaner, and more elegant, and therefore more believable to go with the ETH for the whole UFO explanation. With this you have one single explanation and not a collection of parts put forth by those who have obviously not studied the issue, and by some of whom who wish to display their erudition on their specialty, which is repugnant. However, even this writer admits that even the ETH is not adequate if one restricts the ETH to only one alien species visiting earth. It fails because of the huge variety of different craft that are seen. The variety of craft is far beyond what one would expect a single species to have designed for its mission on earth. The ETH fails until one hypothesizes several visiting species overlapping one another in their visitations. Fortunately, the additional data gleaned from Close Encounters of the Third Kind “proves” that there are many races visiting earth with crafts of many shapes and sizes.
Friday, December 31, 2010
LAMENT FOR UFOLOGY by Ufonalyzer 12/2010
LAMENT FOR UFOLOGY by Ufonalyzer © 12/2010
Come on, ufology, let’s go.
It is time to move forward.
You have plateaued, stalled out.
Your knowledge is not expanding;
progress has stopped.
Arguments rage about 60 year old events.
You’re always looking backward at “classic” sightings.
Endlessly discussing this old stuff leads nowhere.
Discuss it only if you find a new way to shed light.
The richness and newness is gone.
Young people are bored with this old stuff.
What remains is frustration, sniping, and boredom.
Lots of people are bringing you down—
weak politicians, 15 minute fame seekers,
money grubbers, religious fanatics,
lazy media, government agents.
All greed, weakness, and cowardice.
You were almost there.
You almost had congressional hearings.
Assassinations of ethical heroes stifled the revelation.
Yes, Virginia, there is a conspiracy.
Your conferences and podcasts
seek the radical viewpoint.
They get wackos manufacturing
shock impact for money.
Nuts and bolts is passe.
Your public is unaware that it lives
in the shadow of an overhead colossus.
The government knows this,
but chooses to maintain
its illusion of control.
It refuses to admit its helpless reality.
It has won the battle with its people,
but people aren't the right foe.
It is successful with the wrong strategy.
The press surrendered decades ago.
Ignorance is triumphant.
Obama was a false Disclosure hope.
He had the right opportunity.
He could have seized the moment.
He could have made history.
He chickened out,
or listened to the wrong people.
Forget about him.
Don’t get fooled into thinking “they”
are all good and ethical.
Most are though. Or indifferent.
You have saucer orgs that collect but say little.
Are G-men embedded?
Do something! Action is needed.
Foment something political like Keyhoe.
Reveal what you truly think.
Don’t hide your belief.
Emulate Friedman and strap on a pair.
Don’t say sightings should be studied more.
Instead, say UFOs are spacecraft
controlled by alien intelligence.
Don’t let paranormal and religion
hijack the physical truth.
They are here, they are technical.
Stay with science as you ponder
the questions they pose.
But the war is not yet lost.
Keep thinking, keep writing,
but only about something new.
Look for new things to discuss.
Maybe someone will listen.
Not enough have yet.
Never give up.
Come on, ufology, let’s go.
It is time to move forward.
You have plateaued, stalled out.
Your knowledge is not expanding;
progress has stopped.
Arguments rage about 60 year old events.
You’re always looking backward at “classic” sightings.
Endlessly discussing this old stuff leads nowhere.
Discuss it only if you find a new way to shed light.
The richness and newness is gone.
Young people are bored with this old stuff.
What remains is frustration, sniping, and boredom.
Lots of people are bringing you down—
weak politicians, 15 minute fame seekers,
money grubbers, religious fanatics,
lazy media, government agents.
All greed, weakness, and cowardice.
You were almost there.
You almost had congressional hearings.
Assassinations of ethical heroes stifled the revelation.
Yes, Virginia, there is a conspiracy.
Your conferences and podcasts
seek the radical viewpoint.
They get wackos manufacturing
shock impact for money.
Nuts and bolts is passe.
Your public is unaware that it lives
in the shadow of an overhead colossus.
The government knows this,
but chooses to maintain
its illusion of control.
It refuses to admit its helpless reality.
It has won the battle with its people,
but people aren't the right foe.
It is successful with the wrong strategy.
The press surrendered decades ago.
Ignorance is triumphant.
Obama was a false Disclosure hope.
He had the right opportunity.
He could have seized the moment.
He could have made history.
He chickened out,
or listened to the wrong people.
Forget about him.
Don’t get fooled into thinking “they”
are all good and ethical.
Most are though. Or indifferent.
You have saucer orgs that collect but say little.
Are G-men embedded?
Do something! Action is needed.
Foment something political like Keyhoe.
Reveal what you truly think.
Don’t hide your belief.
Emulate Friedman and strap on a pair.
Don’t say sightings should be studied more.
Instead, say UFOs are spacecraft
controlled by alien intelligence.
Don’t let paranormal and religion
hijack the physical truth.
They are here, they are technical.
Stay with science as you ponder
the questions they pose.
But the war is not yet lost.
Keep thinking, keep writing,
but only about something new.
Look for new things to discuss.
Maybe someone will listen.
Not enough have yet.
Never give up.
Monday, November 29, 2010
CORPORATE COSMOLOGY AND ALIEN PERPETUITY by Ufonalyzer © 12/10
CORPORATE COSMOLOGY AND ALIEN PERPETUITY by Ufonalyzer © 12/10
Just in the last few years the Supreme Court made two decisions that were pretty stupid. They decided that corporations, being considered legal entities in the eyes of the law just as a person is, can contribute as much as they want to political campaigns and also kick people out of their homes so that a big development can be built on their property providing that those people live in a neighborhood which somebody judges to be a blight area. Corporate lobbying in Congress will now become an even larger source of corruption. Joe Everyman inherently knows that these were extremely ignorant decisions, cast by five fools (of nine) which will greatly affect 308 million Americans. Apparently the Court were unaware that huge corporations thrived in Nazi Germany, working hand in hand in hand with that government.
Corporations are not like human individuals. Corporations have different objectives and should not be lumped in with every other human person. They, like the Thousand Year Reich, think that they will live forever. They know that the individuals who work for them are just contributors and are transient, and therefore none are indispensable. Their underlying goal is to perpetuate the corporation, and all individuals must be subjugated to this cause. Their cause is really not to enhance the stockholders of the corporation who are the owners which is what is taught in business school.
What does this have to do with aliens? Well, aliens have star travel. Because of this, they know that they can perpetuate their species through colonization of empty planets and hybridization (or genocide) of populated planets. If one of their planets gets destroyed due to a catastrophe, they always have another which continues on. Aliens are analogous to corporations in that they believe they can perpetuate themselves forever. Because aliens know that their species can live forever, they, like corporations, might make different decisions than a human individual might make in the same circumstances. Their telepathy also helps in this regard, for the telepathy acts as an Overmind which overwhelms and dominates any individual free thoughts that its units might originate. Maybe corporate lawyers and business professors could contribute something toward understanding the alien agenda.
Each individual human knows that he/she will not live forever. Each individual probably also knows that the human race probably will not live forever because of its self destructive propensities and vulnerability to a cosmic event. As result, no human has ever needed to ever make a life or death decision based on the survival of the human species. A honeybee, on the other hand, always makes its life or death decisions for the hive’s perpetuation. The Ufonalyzer believes that most of human individuals, if faced with the extinction of the human race or its continuance, would sacrifice whatever remaining years of their lives toward its survival.
Of course, if we humans were to achieve short and efficient star travel, we could join the club and perpetuate ourselves, with the resultant change of thought and goals inherent to such capability.
The preceding talk about living forever and star travel reminds this writer about a science fiction story he once read in which a new religion sprang up. Its two goals were to achieve individual immortality and star travel. Its churches used a small portable reactor as an altar, and the cooling water which surrounded it would glow with a blue light. Great concept. The Ufonalyzer might even join that church.
Just in the last few years the Supreme Court made two decisions that were pretty stupid. They decided that corporations, being considered legal entities in the eyes of the law just as a person is, can contribute as much as they want to political campaigns and also kick people out of their homes so that a big development can be built on their property providing that those people live in a neighborhood which somebody judges to be a blight area. Corporate lobbying in Congress will now become an even larger source of corruption. Joe Everyman inherently knows that these were extremely ignorant decisions, cast by five fools (of nine) which will greatly affect 308 million Americans. Apparently the Court were unaware that huge corporations thrived in Nazi Germany, working hand in hand in hand with that government.
Corporations are not like human individuals. Corporations have different objectives and should not be lumped in with every other human person. They, like the Thousand Year Reich, think that they will live forever. They know that the individuals who work for them are just contributors and are transient, and therefore none are indispensable. Their underlying goal is to perpetuate the corporation, and all individuals must be subjugated to this cause. Their cause is really not to enhance the stockholders of the corporation who are the owners which is what is taught in business school.
What does this have to do with aliens? Well, aliens have star travel. Because of this, they know that they can perpetuate their species through colonization of empty planets and hybridization (or genocide) of populated planets. If one of their planets gets destroyed due to a catastrophe, they always have another which continues on. Aliens are analogous to corporations in that they believe they can perpetuate themselves forever. Because aliens know that their species can live forever, they, like corporations, might make different decisions than a human individual might make in the same circumstances. Their telepathy also helps in this regard, for the telepathy acts as an Overmind which overwhelms and dominates any individual free thoughts that its units might originate. Maybe corporate lawyers and business professors could contribute something toward understanding the alien agenda.
Each individual human knows that he/she will not live forever. Each individual probably also knows that the human race probably will not live forever because of its self destructive propensities and vulnerability to a cosmic event. As result, no human has ever needed to ever make a life or death decision based on the survival of the human species. A honeybee, on the other hand, always makes its life or death decisions for the hive’s perpetuation. The Ufonalyzer believes that most of human individuals, if faced with the extinction of the human race or its continuance, would sacrifice whatever remaining years of their lives toward its survival.
Of course, if we humans were to achieve short and efficient star travel, we could join the club and perpetuate ourselves, with the resultant change of thought and goals inherent to such capability.
The preceding talk about living forever and star travel reminds this writer about a science fiction story he once read in which a new religion sprang up. Its two goals were to achieve individual immortality and star travel. Its churches used a small portable reactor as an altar, and the cooling water which surrounded it would glow with a blue light. Great concept. The Ufonalyzer might even join that church.
Sunday, October 31, 2010
A WORD ON UFO CRASH LISTS by Ufonalyzer
A WORD ON UFO CRASH LISTS by Ufonalyzer
©10/31/10
As stated about one or two other times in this blog, there’s nothing that get a nuts and bolts UFO person’s blood pumping like a UFO crash story. Many people have tried their hand at creating a comprehensive list of rumored UFO crashes, and all you have to do is google “UFO crash list” and a ton of them emerge. From a nuts and bolts guy’s perspective, the best list is the longest list. The longest one found by the Ufonalzyer so far was created by Steven Greer’s organization, CSETI, and it can be found at www.cseti.org/crashes/crash.htm . It has 282 entries. The Ufonalyzer dimly recalls he found an even longer one on the internet once, but can’t find it any more. It had about 300 on it. Both lists have bent over backwards to make them as long as possible, and for that reason, some of the entries could be eliminated straightaway. For example, the CSETI list includes alien body recoveries but with no craft recovery, artifact recovery but with no craft recovery (e.g. Maury Island), the nine UFOs that Bob Lazar claims to have witnessed at Area 51, and twelve 2’ diameter spheres which fell to earth in Australia over a period of 9 years (’63-’72) and claimed by the USA as satellites from one of our secret satellite programs. This was a dubious claim at best which appeared to have been originated to avoid the use of strong arm tactics to take the alien technology away from the Australians. So maybe this list would shrink to about 180-200 crashes once the non-craft stuff is removed. There is also another big list at http://cy-gb.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=371677987079 . It has roughly 170 entries, including a few hoaxes which it clearly demarks as such. Whenever a long crash list is encountered, the Ufonalyzer checks it against some of his favorite but little known crashes which are the 1933 Italy crash, the 1942 Battle of Los Angeles which Majestic documents say had two shoot downs, the Paradise Arizona crash of 1947, and the May 14, 2008, crash south of Needles, California, on the Colorado River near Topock, Arizona. This list misses two of those four, but it is still a pretty good list, nevertheless.
This writeup is prompted by reading Ryan Wood’s book, “Majic Eyes Only” which is a compilation of 74 UFO crash stories. It is highly recommended by the Ufonalyzer because it gives the story behind each crash along with an “authenticity meter” for each. It also has excellent material from some of the Majestic documents which cover UFO crashes. It is hoped that he will someday publish a more comprehensive second edition which contains many more crash stories.
Please don’t wonder why high tech aliens would crash in the first place. When you realize that the second most common activity that aliens perform when seen outside their craft is inspection and repair, you get the idea that maybe, just maybe, these craft are about as prone to malfunction as a car is.* Furthermore, some crashes are “assisted” by humans, and you know what that means, don’t you?
So, how many crashes have occurred? Lots of them. Given that the longest lists peter out at 150-200 crashes, that is probably a good world number for the phenomenon (so far.) Mind you, some of the listed crashes are little more than single source stories, and even rumor. However, you have to also offset this by the following two facts:
Fact #1: The USA started its UFO coverup before the Robertson panel coverup strategy meeting in 1952 and even before the 1947 Roswell incident. Many UFOs were sighted during WWII which were discs, cigars, spheres and not just foo fighter lights. You can read about these in Keith Chester’s excellent 2007 book, “Strange Company.” Most all of these these reports were handled by US and British intelligence so that a determination could be made whether or not they signified a new enemy weapons system which needed a countermeasure strategy. They were taken seriously in spite of the sarcastic and mocking feedback provided by the intelligence guys to the witnesses. They were also told not to talk about these sightings.** Couple this fact with the UFO crash from 1941 in Missouri and the two alleged crashes recovered from the 1942 Battle of Los Angeles, and you can arrive at the following inescapable conclusion: The USA undoubtedly had recovery teams with action plan strategies developed by the time Roswell occurred. The only reason Roswell leaked is that our compartmentalized intelligence “need to know” strategy backfired, so that well meaning military witnesses who weren’t in the inner circle did the right thing and publicized the event. It also means that recovery teams had enough early practice to have developed sufficient expertise to completely erase some UFO recoveries from any public disclosure whatsoever. In other words, the hoax and fake stories about UFO crashes that are on these lists are probably offset by crashes that actually did take place for which nothing at all is known.
Fact #2: Furthermore, here’s another way to look at these crash lists. As you know, there is nothing special about the USA from a UFO crash perspective. The USA has not been the consistently hottest spot in the world for UFO activity. UFOs are worldwide. Yet in Ryan Wood’s book of 74 crashes, 39 of them occurred in the lower 48 states. The free world supplied 69 of the 74 crashes, give or take a crash (too lazy to check the counting.) We all know that totalitarian areas of the world occupy huge land masses (Russia and China) plus occasional places that have cropped up under dictators like North Korea, Venezuela, Axis powers, Argentina, Albania, etc. Only 4 of these 74 reports came from such places. Inspection of the longer lists reveals the same kind of disproportionate contributions. Surely these foreign places have had their own crashes to deal with just as we have had, so it might just be that the UFO crash total is several hundred (and alien body count would be directly proportional to the crash count.)
*Most crashed UFOs might be scout craft as is evidenced by lack of “normal” amenities, such as food, quarters, etc. Aliens may place their reliability emphasis in their mother ship designs, and not in their short range vehicles.
**An essay by Don C. Donderi is found in David M. Jacobs’ book, “UFO Abductions”, c2000. Mr. Donderi’s essay is entitled “Science, Law, and War: Alternative Frameworks for the UFO Evidence”. This essay shows that military intelligence analysts would be the profession best suited to arrive at the ETH the fastest and to take it seriously. They would have to address the sightings in a serious manner because it’s their job to look for threats. The profession least suited (of the three: science, law, and military) are scientists.
©10/31/10
As stated about one or two other times in this blog, there’s nothing that get a nuts and bolts UFO person’s blood pumping like a UFO crash story. Many people have tried their hand at creating a comprehensive list of rumored UFO crashes, and all you have to do is google “UFO crash list” and a ton of them emerge. From a nuts and bolts guy’s perspective, the best list is the longest list. The longest one found by the Ufonalzyer so far was created by Steven Greer’s organization, CSETI, and it can be found at www.cseti.org/crashes/crash.htm . It has 282 entries. The Ufonalyzer dimly recalls he found an even longer one on the internet once, but can’t find it any more. It had about 300 on it. Both lists have bent over backwards to make them as long as possible, and for that reason, some of the entries could be eliminated straightaway. For example, the CSETI list includes alien body recoveries but with no craft recovery, artifact recovery but with no craft recovery (e.g. Maury Island), the nine UFOs that Bob Lazar claims to have witnessed at Area 51, and twelve 2’ diameter spheres which fell to earth in Australia over a period of 9 years (’63-’72) and claimed by the USA as satellites from one of our secret satellite programs. This was a dubious claim at best which appeared to have been originated to avoid the use of strong arm tactics to take the alien technology away from the Australians. So maybe this list would shrink to about 180-200 crashes once the non-craft stuff is removed. There is also another big list at http://cy-gb.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=371677987079 . It has roughly 170 entries, including a few hoaxes which it clearly demarks as such. Whenever a long crash list is encountered, the Ufonalyzer checks it against some of his favorite but little known crashes which are the 1933 Italy crash, the 1942 Battle of Los Angeles which Majestic documents say had two shoot downs, the Paradise Arizona crash of 1947, and the May 14, 2008, crash south of Needles, California, on the Colorado River near Topock, Arizona. This list misses two of those four, but it is still a pretty good list, nevertheless.
This writeup is prompted by reading Ryan Wood’s book, “Majic Eyes Only” which is a compilation of 74 UFO crash stories. It is highly recommended by the Ufonalyzer because it gives the story behind each crash along with an “authenticity meter” for each. It also has excellent material from some of the Majestic documents which cover UFO crashes. It is hoped that he will someday publish a more comprehensive second edition which contains many more crash stories.
Please don’t wonder why high tech aliens would crash in the first place. When you realize that the second most common activity that aliens perform when seen outside their craft is inspection and repair, you get the idea that maybe, just maybe, these craft are about as prone to malfunction as a car is.* Furthermore, some crashes are “assisted” by humans, and you know what that means, don’t you?
So, how many crashes have occurred? Lots of them. Given that the longest lists peter out at 150-200 crashes, that is probably a good world number for the phenomenon (so far.) Mind you, some of the listed crashes are little more than single source stories, and even rumor. However, you have to also offset this by the following two facts:
Fact #1: The USA started its UFO coverup before the Robertson panel coverup strategy meeting in 1952 and even before the 1947 Roswell incident. Many UFOs were sighted during WWII which were discs, cigars, spheres and not just foo fighter lights. You can read about these in Keith Chester’s excellent 2007 book, “Strange Company.” Most all of these these reports were handled by US and British intelligence so that a determination could be made whether or not they signified a new enemy weapons system which needed a countermeasure strategy. They were taken seriously in spite of the sarcastic and mocking feedback provided by the intelligence guys to the witnesses. They were also told not to talk about these sightings.** Couple this fact with the UFO crash from 1941 in Missouri and the two alleged crashes recovered from the 1942 Battle of Los Angeles, and you can arrive at the following inescapable conclusion: The USA undoubtedly had recovery teams with action plan strategies developed by the time Roswell occurred. The only reason Roswell leaked is that our compartmentalized intelligence “need to know” strategy backfired, so that well meaning military witnesses who weren’t in the inner circle did the right thing and publicized the event. It also means that recovery teams had enough early practice to have developed sufficient expertise to completely erase some UFO recoveries from any public disclosure whatsoever. In other words, the hoax and fake stories about UFO crashes that are on these lists are probably offset by crashes that actually did take place for which nothing at all is known.
Fact #2: Furthermore, here’s another way to look at these crash lists. As you know, there is nothing special about the USA from a UFO crash perspective. The USA has not been the consistently hottest spot in the world for UFO activity. UFOs are worldwide. Yet in Ryan Wood’s book of 74 crashes, 39 of them occurred in the lower 48 states. The free world supplied 69 of the 74 crashes, give or take a crash (too lazy to check the counting.) We all know that totalitarian areas of the world occupy huge land masses (Russia and China) plus occasional places that have cropped up under dictators like North Korea, Venezuela, Axis powers, Argentina, Albania, etc. Only 4 of these 74 reports came from such places. Inspection of the longer lists reveals the same kind of disproportionate contributions. Surely these foreign places have had their own crashes to deal with just as we have had, so it might just be that the UFO crash total is several hundred (and alien body count would be directly proportional to the crash count.)
*Most crashed UFOs might be scout craft as is evidenced by lack of “normal” amenities, such as food, quarters, etc. Aliens may place their reliability emphasis in their mother ship designs, and not in their short range vehicles.
But there’s another way to look at this which may satisfy those who are in the “high-tech-means-reliability” camp. In this blog's writeup, “Negativity and Pessimism”, July, 2010, an estimate was made of 141,000 UFO flights per day in the world just for the alien abduction project. This estimate was based primarily on the Hopkins/Jacobs estimate of 2% of the worldwide population having been abducted, plus some other reasonable assumptions. Scaled by population to the United states , this gives 7,000 UFO flights per day over the US USA USA
**An essay by Don C. Donderi is found in David M. Jacobs’ book, “UFO Abductions”, c2000. Mr. Donderi’s essay is entitled “Science, Law, and War: Alternative Frameworks for the UFO Evidence”. This essay shows that military intelligence analysts would be the profession best suited to arrive at the ETH the fastest and to take it seriously. They would have to address the sightings in a serious manner because it’s their job to look for threats. The profession least suited (of the three: science, law, and military) are scientists.
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
WHAT'S IN A NAME? by Ufonalyzer 10/2010
What’s in a Name? (humor)
In one of his books, Timothy Good relates the story of Ludwig Pallman, who as a traveling salesman of food processing equipment in the 1960s, meets and befriends an alien visitor to our planet Earth. The alien’s mission is to do good here while collecting seeds and plant specimens which would be of food value to beings across all races. The alien tells Ludwig Pallman that earth is one of many planets where spontaneous cancer springs up, and as such is known as a “Cancer Planet.” Ufonalyzer can’t remember which of Timothy Good’s five or so books has this in it, but Pallman wrote of his experiences in his own book, “UFO Contact from Itibi-Ra: Cancer Planet Mission”, 1970. It is available as an ebook on line for $9.95. Everything that this writer has read about Mr. Pallman is that he was a very hard man to find and pin down to get an interview so as to assess the truth in his stories, but as far as can be found, no one was able to locate him for this purpose because he seemed to be constantly on the move in backwater regions of the world.
So we are known as a Cancer Planet. It’s a good bet that Earth has other names in the alien community as well. One of the Ufonalyzer’s guilty pleasures is zombie movies, and he prefers the slow zombies over those fast ones. There just aren’t enough of those movies made. A weak analogy could be made that we are “Zombie Planet.” We are always attacking and trying to kill every single alien ship we see, but our means of doing so is just as slow and inept as those darn zombies. Compared to aliens’ apparent mental capacities, ours must seem minuscule just as a zombie’s is to our own. Once in a while due to various reasons, we succeed in catching one of them (i.e. an alien) just like the slow zombies do in the movies when they catch a human. If we capture a live alien, we try to pick its brain which one could say corresponds to eating its brain. For sure, every alien knows that if captured, it is their death sentence. It is like the roach motel down here—you check in, but never check out.
But at least these names are better than a couple of the planets’ names that aliens allegedly came from. One contactee claimed he met beings who were the Dodonians, so they must have come from the Dodo planet. Still another race said that they came from the planet Urin. Maybe this planet is next to Uranus. (These names were obtained from encounters described in Albert Rosales’ website at
http://www.ufoinfo.com/humanoid/ ).
But earth’s alien name that would ring truest to this writer would be “A**hole Planet.” Aliens, however, might not have that portion of the anatomy, so it could also be “Planet of the Insane.” In fact, in Case # 19 in Albert Rosales’ website for 1947*, a Russian youth asked a 9’ tall alien why they didn’t contact humanity openly. The alien’s response was, "Why don't humans contact those in an insane asylum?" In the recent movie remake of “the Day the Earth Stood Still”, Keanu Reeves was told by an alien secret agent who had lived here on earth for the last several decades that we all know we are doomed yet cannot seem to do anything about it, so we continue on our path to self destruction. Aliens must shake their heads in bewilderment at some of the antics that occur here. Timothy Good has stated that abductions may be for the possible purpose of breeding our chimpanzee-like aggressive tendencies out of our genetic makeup. He stated that it could be about a hundred year project. Based on our abduction history it appears that this project is in its 5th decade or so with 50 years to go, plus or minus a decade or two.** So far, it looks like the project will fail. This makes one wonder what the aliens will do after that.
* http://www.ufoinfo.com/humanoid/humanoid1947.shtml
** In a May, 2010 podcast, noted abduction researcher, Budd Hopkins, stated that he has some elderly abductee subjects who started experiencing their abductions in the 1920’s.
In one of his books, Timothy Good relates the story of Ludwig Pallman, who as a traveling salesman of food processing equipment in the 1960s, meets and befriends an alien visitor to our planet Earth. The alien’s mission is to do good here while collecting seeds and plant specimens which would be of food value to beings across all races. The alien tells Ludwig Pallman that earth is one of many planets where spontaneous cancer springs up, and as such is known as a “Cancer Planet.” Ufonalyzer can’t remember which of Timothy Good’s five or so books has this in it, but Pallman wrote of his experiences in his own book, “UFO Contact from Itibi-Ra: Cancer Planet Mission”, 1970. It is available as an ebook on line for $9.95. Everything that this writer has read about Mr. Pallman is that he was a very hard man to find and pin down to get an interview so as to assess the truth in his stories, but as far as can be found, no one was able to locate him for this purpose because he seemed to be constantly on the move in backwater regions of the world.
So we are known as a Cancer Planet. It’s a good bet that Earth has other names in the alien community as well. One of the Ufonalyzer’s guilty pleasures is zombie movies, and he prefers the slow zombies over those fast ones. There just aren’t enough of those movies made. A weak analogy could be made that we are “Zombie Planet.” We are always attacking and trying to kill every single alien ship we see, but our means of doing so is just as slow and inept as those darn zombies. Compared to aliens’ apparent mental capacities, ours must seem minuscule just as a zombie’s is to our own. Once in a while due to various reasons, we succeed in catching one of them (i.e. an alien) just like the slow zombies do in the movies when they catch a human. If we capture a live alien, we try to pick its brain which one could say corresponds to eating its brain. For sure, every alien knows that if captured, it is their death sentence. It is like the roach motel down here—you check in, but never check out.
But at least these names are better than a couple of the planets’ names that aliens allegedly came from. One contactee claimed he met beings who were the Dodonians, so they must have come from the Dodo planet. Still another race said that they came from the planet Urin. Maybe this planet is next to Uranus. (These names were obtained from encounters described in Albert Rosales’ website at
http://www.ufoinfo.com/humanoid/ ).
But earth’s alien name that would ring truest to this writer would be “A**hole Planet.” Aliens, however, might not have that portion of the anatomy, so it could also be “Planet of the Insane.” In fact, in Case # 19 in Albert Rosales’ website for 1947*, a Russian youth asked a 9’ tall alien why they didn’t contact humanity openly. The alien’s response was, "Why don't humans contact those in an insane asylum?" In the recent movie remake of “the Day the Earth Stood Still”, Keanu Reeves was told by an alien secret agent who had lived here on earth for the last several decades that we all know we are doomed yet cannot seem to do anything about it, so we continue on our path to self destruction. Aliens must shake their heads in bewilderment at some of the antics that occur here. Timothy Good has stated that abductions may be for the possible purpose of breeding our chimpanzee-like aggressive tendencies out of our genetic makeup. He stated that it could be about a hundred year project. Based on our abduction history it appears that this project is in its 5th decade or so with 50 years to go, plus or minus a decade or two.** So far, it looks like the project will fail. This makes one wonder what the aliens will do after that.
* http://www.ufoinfo.com/humanoid/humanoid1947.shtml
** In a May, 2010 podcast, noted abduction researcher, Budd Hopkins, stated that he has some elderly abductee subjects who started experiencing their abductions in the 1920’s.
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Thursday, September 30, 2010
ESTIMATES by Ufonalyzer 9/2010
ESTIMATES by Ufonalyzer 9/2010
One thing that more UFO students should do is try to get their arms around the UFO situation in a more quantitative way. It helps reduce the confusion about this whole issue of aliens if it can be defined quantitatively. Too many UFO papers are rubbish of one sort or another (perhaps including some of the Ufonalyzer’s). It is a good feeling to put your own estimate out there and then find out that someone else has done his own study using some other method and corroborated your own work. This writeup will summarize some of the Ufonalyzer’s previous estimates that have been made on the subject of UFOs as he seeks to understand the true nature of the phenomenon.
The first UFO estimate that this writer did was to calculate that there are 116,000 aliens now on earth. This was done by estimating how many alien beings are on each UFO that is sighted, and then scaling that number by the number of world sightings estimated per year and then further scaled upward and downward by unreported sightings, bad sightings, and so on. Read “How Many Aliens Are Here? How Many Aliens are on a 600’ UFO?” 4/2009, to check out the complete method. No one as yet has done a similar calculation. Lest you think this is a huge number, this is about one alien for every 52,000 humans. Be reminded that the conquistadors who destroyed the Incan and Aztec empires were outnumbered by much more than this number. Of course they achieved victory not so much by superior technology as by convincing the native tribes to unite with them and fight against the ruling native tribes. You also have to realize that the number could be much, much larger or smaller than 116,000. The point is that it is not just a few aliens numbering in the hundreds. Here are some more estimates never before published: some abduction theorists think that as many as 5-6% of the population has been abducted. The two main abduction specialists, Dr David M. Jacobs and Budd Hopkins believe the figure is more like 2%. Abductions have been occurring for over 70 years, which is about 25,000 days. Our population is 300 million. At a 2% abduction rate, that’s 720 abductions per day in the USA alone. Abductions are a worldwide phenomenon. UFO abduction crews always have at least 2-3 alien beings witnessed. That’s 2100 (720 x 3 beings) beings (in the USA) per day if one assumes the aliens abduct only one person per flight. Some abductees report that several abductions occur per flight, however. So this means the 2100 alien beings per day figure is overstated. Here’s the real point: the number of aliens working on earth is in the thousands. It is not a small amount of visits by space explorers and tourists. Basing an estimate on the work of Hopkins and Jacobs, the Ufonalyzer estimated that 141,000 UFOs may be visiting earth each day to perform abductions, providing of course that abductions are real. (Read “Negativity and Pessimism”, 8/2010, in this blog.) The Ufonalzyer saw a video interview of deceased ufologist Ellen Crystall (author of the good UFO book, “Silent Invasion,” 1991) who made an estimate of 250,000 UFOs visiting our skies each night! Whether it’s 141k or 250k, it’s a heck of a lot!
A few months ago on the Kevin Smith show, the Director of MUFON, Clifford Clift, said that alien sightings are occurring in about 2 of every 500 UFO reports. This compares to the Ufonalyzer’s own independent estimate of 1 in every 1132 reports (as estimated in “Analysis of Historical Alien Close Encounters” 7/2009.) Alien being sightings are rare occurrences shrouded in secrecy and misinformation, so this is actually good agreement. Mr. Clift says that all the sightings are of small aliens. This trend fits Ufonalyzer’s own studies which are described in his “Greys Ascendant”, 2/2010, which shows that the sighting percentage of greys is rising dramatically. In “Greys Ascendant”, we learn that the percentages of greys is rising steadily as a percentage of observed alien sightings, no abductions included. For example, in the sixties, only 8% of sightings were of greys, and that percentage increases to 30% in the decade 2000-2009. Most sightings are too poor to identify anything other than a figure or a being. If such sightings were better, the percentage of greys could have been higher .
The Ufonalyzer has also counted, although quite carelessly, that at least 48 different species have visited earth bases on his spreadsheet of CE3 cases to be found at http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=tEs6J6ak0RuSE-2P1z9DCjQ&hl=en
Kevin Smith mentioned a guest who says the number is 70, and the government has pictures to prove it. Let’s compromise for now and say that the number 60 is accurate, and let’s further say that all these races come from within 300 light years of our sun. Why 300? Read Ufonalyzer’s blog article entitled “You Can’t Get Here From There”, 3/2010, to get the answer to this question. Given that there are 2000 stars within 50 light years from earth, it can be estimated that 300 light years would contain 432,000 stars. This calculates out to 1 starfaring race for every 7200 suns in our neighborhood. Another surprise gleaned from the aforementioned spreadsheet is the small size of the landed UFOs. 60% of the landed UFOs were 20’ or less in diameter, even though the average diameter of a flying UFO averages is usually estimated to be much higher. The Ufonalyzer thinks that the airborne size estimate is the wrong one due usually to having no nearby size reference. One last thing about size. The Ufonalyzer once had the theory that UFO sizes were trending larger over the decades. Based on sighting data, this has not been the case at all; i.e. they seem to be holding at the same size, and the big difference now is all the triangle shapes that are seen whereas in the past decades only a few were seen.
Getting back to those alien being sightings, 297 such sightings (does not include abductions) were collected since 1933 and put into the previously mentioned spreadsheet. When good descriptions of aliens were provided, it was found that 20% of the observed aliens required breathing apparatus to sustain themselves in our atmosphere. Their most popular observed activity (when such information was provided by the sighter) was sample gathering (23 of 46 instances), while the second most popular activity was UFO inspection and repair (11 of 46 instances.) Read Ufonalyzer’s writeups “Analysis of Historical Alien Close Encounters”, 7/2009, and “Update: Close Encounters Spreadsheet”, 2/2010.
Another estimate about the UFO situation here on earth gives a figure of 93,000 black budget UFO workers that exist in the United States. The study which made this estimate is “How Many Black Budget UFO Workers Are There?”, 9/2009. This study also points toward the fact that the majority of the 93,000 don’t work directly for the government, so they must work in private industry. The study also crudely estimates that only about 1 in 500 of these people ever comes forward to tell their story, and that there may be as many as 200,000 revelatory UFO stories out there walking around in silence. These figures are further expounded upon in this blog’s article,“People Are Strange Too”, 5/2010.
In the article “Does America Have a Secret Space Program?” 10/2009, it is concluded that the answer is likely YES, but only if it is a space fleet that uses field propulsion such as antigravity as opposed to the primitive “firecracker” technology which drives our jets, rockets, cars, etc. There is certainly enough money for it. The US has had secret space programs in the past as well as secret agencies, so having a secret space fleet is simply a matter of technology and perceived necessity. Therefore, if we’ve back engineered crashed UFO propulsion, then we have such a fleet right now. The main job of this fleet is the weaponizing of space.
Finally, and most recently, the Ufonalyzer has concluded by using a Chi-Squared analysis in the writeup “UFOs vs Air Traffic Accidents—A Chi-Squared Analysis”, 8/30/2010, that the amount of UFO caused air traffic accidents is too small to be statistically detectable in overall world air traffic accident statistics.
One thing that more UFO students should do is try to get their arms around the UFO situation in a more quantitative way. It helps reduce the confusion about this whole issue of aliens if it can be defined quantitatively. Too many UFO papers are rubbish of one sort or another (perhaps including some of the Ufonalyzer’s). It is a good feeling to put your own estimate out there and then find out that someone else has done his own study using some other method and corroborated your own work. This writeup will summarize some of the Ufonalyzer’s previous estimates that have been made on the subject of UFOs as he seeks to understand the true nature of the phenomenon.
The first UFO estimate that this writer did was to calculate that there are 116,000 aliens now on earth. This was done by estimating how many alien beings are on each UFO that is sighted, and then scaling that number by the number of world sightings estimated per year and then further scaled upward and downward by unreported sightings, bad sightings, and so on. Read “How Many Aliens Are Here? How Many Aliens are on a 600’ UFO?” 4/2009, to check out the complete method. No one as yet has done a similar calculation. Lest you think this is a huge number, this is about one alien for every 52,000 humans. Be reminded that the conquistadors who destroyed the Incan and Aztec empires were outnumbered by much more than this number. Of course they achieved victory not so much by superior technology as by convincing the native tribes to unite with them and fight against the ruling native tribes. You also have to realize that the number could be much, much larger or smaller than 116,000. The point is that it is not just a few aliens numbering in the hundreds. Here are some more estimates never before published: some abduction theorists think that as many as 5-6% of the population has been abducted. The two main abduction specialists, Dr David M. Jacobs and Budd Hopkins believe the figure is more like 2%. Abductions have been occurring for over 70 years, which is about 25,000 days. Our population is 300 million. At a 2% abduction rate, that’s 720 abductions per day in the USA alone. Abductions are a worldwide phenomenon. UFO abduction crews always have at least 2-3 alien beings witnessed. That’s 2100 (720 x 3 beings) beings (in the USA) per day if one assumes the aliens abduct only one person per flight. Some abductees report that several abductions occur per flight, however. So this means the 2100 alien beings per day figure is overstated. Here’s the real point: the number of aliens working on earth is in the thousands. It is not a small amount of visits by space explorers and tourists. Basing an estimate on the work of Hopkins and Jacobs, the Ufonalyzer estimated that 141,000 UFOs may be visiting earth each day to perform abductions, providing of course that abductions are real. (Read “Negativity and Pessimism”, 8/2010, in this blog.) The Ufonalzyer saw a video interview of deceased ufologist Ellen Crystall (author of the good UFO book, “Silent Invasion,” 1991) who made an estimate of 250,000 UFOs visiting our skies each night! Whether it’s 141k or 250k, it’s a heck of a lot!
A few months ago on the Kevin Smith show, the Director of MUFON, Clifford Clift, said that alien sightings are occurring in about 2 of every 500 UFO reports. This compares to the Ufonalyzer’s own independent estimate of 1 in every 1132 reports (as estimated in “Analysis of Historical Alien Close Encounters” 7/2009.) Alien being sightings are rare occurrences shrouded in secrecy and misinformation, so this is actually good agreement. Mr. Clift says that all the sightings are of small aliens. This trend fits Ufonalyzer’s own studies which are described in his “Greys Ascendant”, 2/2010, which shows that the sighting percentage of greys is rising dramatically. In “Greys Ascendant”, we learn that the percentages of greys is rising steadily as a percentage of observed alien sightings, no abductions included. For example, in the sixties, only 8% of sightings were of greys, and that percentage increases to 30% in the decade 2000-2009. Most sightings are too poor to identify anything other than a figure or a being. If such sightings were better, the percentage of greys could have been higher .
The Ufonalyzer has also counted, although quite carelessly, that at least 48 different species have visited earth bases on his spreadsheet of CE3 cases to be found at http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=tEs6J6ak0RuSE-2P1z9DCjQ&hl=en
Kevin Smith mentioned a guest who says the number is 70, and the government has pictures to prove it. Let’s compromise for now and say that the number 60 is accurate, and let’s further say that all these races come from within 300 light years of our sun. Why 300? Read Ufonalyzer’s blog article entitled “You Can’t Get Here From There”, 3/2010, to get the answer to this question. Given that there are 2000 stars within 50 light years from earth, it can be estimated that 300 light years would contain 432,000 stars. This calculates out to 1 starfaring race for every 7200 suns in our neighborhood. Another surprise gleaned from the aforementioned spreadsheet is the small size of the landed UFOs. 60% of the landed UFOs were 20’ or less in diameter, even though the average diameter of a flying UFO averages is usually estimated to be much higher. The Ufonalyzer thinks that the airborne size estimate is the wrong one due usually to having no nearby size reference. One last thing about size. The Ufonalyzer once had the theory that UFO sizes were trending larger over the decades. Based on sighting data, this has not been the case at all; i.e. they seem to be holding at the same size, and the big difference now is all the triangle shapes that are seen whereas in the past decades only a few were seen.
Getting back to those alien being sightings, 297 such sightings (does not include abductions) were collected since 1933 and put into the previously mentioned spreadsheet. When good descriptions of aliens were provided, it was found that 20% of the observed aliens required breathing apparatus to sustain themselves in our atmosphere. Their most popular observed activity (when such information was provided by the sighter) was sample gathering (23 of 46 instances), while the second most popular activity was UFO inspection and repair (11 of 46 instances.) Read Ufonalyzer’s writeups “Analysis of Historical Alien Close Encounters”, 7/2009, and “Update: Close Encounters Spreadsheet”, 2/2010.
Another estimate about the UFO situation here on earth gives a figure of 93,000 black budget UFO workers that exist in the United States. The study which made this estimate is “How Many Black Budget UFO Workers Are There?”, 9/2009. This study also points toward the fact that the majority of the 93,000 don’t work directly for the government, so they must work in private industry. The study also crudely estimates that only about 1 in 500 of these people ever comes forward to tell their story, and that there may be as many as 200,000 revelatory UFO stories out there walking around in silence. These figures are further expounded upon in this blog’s article,“People Are Strange Too”, 5/2010.
In the article “Does America Have a Secret Space Program?” 10/2009, it is concluded that the answer is likely YES, but only if it is a space fleet that uses field propulsion such as antigravity as opposed to the primitive “firecracker” technology which drives our jets, rockets, cars, etc. There is certainly enough money for it. The US has had secret space programs in the past as well as secret agencies, so having a secret space fleet is simply a matter of technology and perceived necessity. Therefore, if we’ve back engineered crashed UFO propulsion, then we have such a fleet right now. The main job of this fleet is the weaponizing of space.
Finally, and most recently, the Ufonalyzer has concluded by using a Chi-Squared analysis in the writeup “UFOs vs Air Traffic Accidents—A Chi-Squared Analysis”, 8/30/2010, that the amount of UFO caused air traffic accidents is too small to be statistically detectable in overall world air traffic accident statistics.
©
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