A WORD ON UFO CRASH LISTS by Ufonalyzer

A WORD ON UFO CRASH LISTS                                  by Ufonalyzer   
©10/31/10


As stated about one or two other times in this blog, there’s nothing that get a nuts and bolts UFO person’s blood pumping like a UFO crash story. Many people have tried their hand at creating a comprehensive list of rumored UFO crashes, and all you have to do is google “UFO crash list” and a ton of them emerge. From a nuts and bolts guy’s perspective, the best list is the longest list. The longest one found by the Ufonalzyer so far was created by Steven Greer’s organization, CSETI, and it can be found at www.cseti.org/crashes/crash.htm . It has 282 entries. The Ufonalyzer dimly recalls he found an even longer one on the internet once, but can’t find it any more. It had about 300 on it. Both lists have bent over backwards to make them as long as possible, and for that reason, some of the entries could be eliminated straightaway. For example, the CSETI list includes alien body recoveries but with no craft recovery, artifact recovery but with no craft recovery (e.g. Maury Island), the nine UFOs that Bob Lazar claims to have witnessed at Area 51, and twelve 2’ diameter spheres which fell to earth in Australia over a period of 9 years (’63-’72) and claimed by the USA as satellites from one of our secret satellite programs. This was a dubious claim at best which appeared to have been originated to avoid the use of strong arm tactics to take the alien technology away from the Australians. So maybe this list would shrink to about 180-200 crashes once the non-craft stuff is removed. There is also another big list at http://cy-gb.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=371677987079 . It has roughly 170 entries, including a few hoaxes which it clearly demarks as such. Whenever a long crash list is encountered, the Ufonalyzer checks it against some of his favorite but little known crashes which are the 1933 Italy crash, the 1942 Battle of Los Angeles which Majestic documents say had two shoot downs, the Paradise Arizona crash of 1947, and the May 14, 2008, crash south of Needles, California, on the Colorado River near Topock, Arizona. This list misses two of those four, but it is still a pretty good list, nevertheless.

This writeup is prompted by reading Ryan Wood’s book, “Majic Eyes Only” which is a compilation of 74 UFO crash stories. It is highly recommended by the Ufonalyzer because it gives the story behind each crash along with an “authenticity meter” for each. It also has excellent material from some of the Majestic documents which cover UFO crashes. It is hoped that he will someday publish a more comprehensive second edition which contains many more crash stories.

Please don’t wonder why high tech aliens would crash in the first place. When you realize that the second most common activity that aliens perform when seen outside their craft is inspection and repair, you get the idea that maybe, just maybe, these craft are about as prone to malfunction as a car is.* Furthermore, some crashes are “assisted” by humans, and you know what that means, don’t you?

So, how many crashes have occurred? Lots of them. Given that the longest lists peter out at 150-200 crashes, that is probably a good world number for the phenomenon (so far.) Mind you, some of the listed crashes are little more than single source stories, and even rumor. However, you have to also offset this by the following two facts:

Fact #1: The USA started its UFO coverup before the Robertson panel coverup strategy meeting in 1952 and even before the 1947 Roswell incident. Many UFOs were sighted during WWII which were discs, cigars, spheres and not just foo fighter lights. You can read about these in Keith Chester’s excellent 2007 book, “Strange Company.” Most all of these these reports were handled by US and British intelligence so that a determination could be made whether or not they signified a new enemy weapons system which needed a countermeasure strategy. They were taken seriously in spite of the sarcastic and mocking feedback provided by the intelligence guys to the witnesses. They were also told not to talk about these sightings.** Couple this fact with the UFO crash from 1941 in Missouri and the two alleged crashes recovered from the 1942 Battle of Los Angeles, and you can arrive at the following inescapable conclusion: The USA undoubtedly had recovery teams with action plan strategies developed by the time Roswell occurred. The only reason Roswell leaked is that our compartmentalized intelligence “need to know” strategy backfired, so that well meaning military witnesses who weren’t in the inner circle did the right thing and publicized the event. It also means that recovery teams had enough early practice to have developed sufficient expertise to completely erase some UFO recoveries from any public disclosure whatsoever. In other words, the hoax and fake stories about UFO crashes that are on these lists are probably offset by crashes that actually did take place for which nothing at all is known.

Fact #2: Furthermore, here’s another way to look at these crash lists. As you know, there is nothing special about the USA from a UFO crash perspective. The USA has not been the consistently hottest spot in the world for UFO activity. UFOs are worldwide. Yet in Ryan Wood’s book of 74 crashes, 39 of them occurred in the lower 48 states. The free world supplied 69 of the 74 crashes, give or take a crash (too lazy to check the counting.) We all know that totalitarian areas of the world occupy huge land masses (Russia and China) plus occasional places that have cropped up under dictators like North Korea, Venezuela, Axis powers, Argentina, Albania, etc. Only 4 of these 74 reports came from such places. Inspection of the longer lists reveals the same kind of disproportionate contributions. Surely these foreign places have had their own crashes to deal with just as we have had, so it might just be that the UFO crash total is several hundred (and alien body count would be directly proportional to the crash count.)

     *Most crashed UFOs might be scout craft as is evidenced by lack of “normal” amenities, such as food, quarters, etc. Aliens may place their reliability emphasis in their mother ship designs, and not in their short range vehicles.

     But there’s another way to look at this which may satisfy those who are in the “high-tech-means-reliability” camp. In this blog's writeup, “Negativity and Pessimism”, July, 2010, an estimate was made of 141,000 UFO flights per day in the world just for the alien abduction project. This estimate was based primarily on the Hopkins/Jacobs estimate of 2% of the worldwide population having been abducted, plus some other reasonable assumptions. Scaled by population to the United states, this gives 7,000 UFO flights per day over the US. There’s been about 40 UFO crashes in the USA in the last 70 years, so that’s a reliability per UFO flight of 0.22 UFO crashes per million flights. Airplane statistics, including private aircraft, for the same period gives a reliability of 1.406 airplane crashes per million flights. Therefore, UFOs are 7 times as reliable as airplanes. (This last calculation for airplanes was based on 87,000 flights per day over the USA and a total of 4864 accidents from 1918 to the present, and 64.28% of these accidents (= 3126 accidents) having occurred from 1950 to the present. Yes, the writer knows that in 1950, there were fewer than the present 87,000 flights per day, but by the same reasoning, it’s almost certain that in 1950 there were fewer than 7000 UFO flights per day in the USA. The reason for this big flaw in the estimates is that no yearly flight data could be found except for major airlines. If this flaw were fixed in the arithmetic used here, then it is expected that both the UFO and airline reliability rates would be calculated as worse than is presented here, but the ratio of the two would stay more or less the same.)

     **An essay by Don C. Donderi is found in David M. Jacobs’ book, “UFO Abductions”, c2000. Mr. Donderi’s essay is entitled “Science, Law, and War: Alternative Frameworks for the UFO Evidence”. This essay shows that military intelligence analysts would be the profession best suited to arrive at the ETH the fastest and to take it seriously. They would have to address the sightings in a serious manner because it’s their job to look for threats. The profession least suited (of the three: science, law, and military) are scientists.