ALIEN SPECIES ESTIMATE by Charles Tromblee

Alien Species Estimate ©

I follow a UFO blog that is quite good, and I like to read the comments from fellow readers of that blog. The motivation to write this article came because of a recent blog comment that bothered me. It bothered me because I have done research on this very item for which this person is announcing his skepticism. Here is the comment: “The entire Disclosure/Exopolitics thing is rife with people making all sorts of wild assertions (57 species of aliens, dontcha know!) breeding even wilder assertions.”

First of all, I don’t have a problem with the Exopolitics part of his remark. Exopolitics puts the cart before the horse because it deals with politically interfacing with our alien visitors. How about getting them to publicly come forward in the first place, after which we can think about playing our politics with them? Exopolitics does make wild assertions which are not data driven, and some of them appear to have been plagiarized from the work of non-Exopolitics ufologists. Unfortunately, I am embarrassed to admit that my own data driven research has compelled me to conclude that a couple of Exopolitics’ major tenets about aliens might be true. Rather than critique the Exopolitics movement any further, what I want to write about is that “57 species of aliens” remark.

A couple of things that have always bugged me about UFOs are the question of the number of alien species visiting earth and the large variety of craft shapes. Regarding craft shape, if there is only a couple of species visiting here, it is illogical to think that all those different reported craft shapes and sizes belong to just them. In fact, it is so illogical that it makes one actually disbelieve that UFOs are real. Furthermore, UFO encounters cause inconsistent trace evidence, such as some or no electrical effects, some or no magnetized metals, some or no radioactivity, and some or no medical effects. But it does not take a genius to figure out that if the number of visiting species is large, then one could logically expect that the number of observed craft shapes and sizes and will be large also, as well as those craft having a varying effect on the environment. After all, the cars designed by Detroit look different from the cars designed by Porsche or Fiat as would the craft designs from one planet to the next. I have seen lots of estimates on the number of species visiting earth, ranging from 2 or 6 up to the 160s or so. The number I have seen most commonly is about 60. What I have never seen is how any of these separate numbers were derived, so I set out to derive my own number. It is also interesting to note that the number of alleged species has increased steadily over the years, from 2 described in the Majestic document, SOM1-1, in 1954, to six some years later, and now it is popularly about five dozen.

My own number was not derived simply by taking an average of all of the extant numbers that are out there in UFO literature. What was done is to find books by the most revered of old fashioned ufologists, such as Jacques Vallee, Gordon Creighton, Richard Hall, Timothy Good, and Coral Lorenzen and filter the Close Encounters of the 3rd Kind (CE3) that are described in their books. These guys were the pillars of nuts and bolts ufology in their day, and the case studies in the books that I used were investigated much more thoroughly than case studies of today. You can see that when you compare their case studies with those of the present day, because the CE3 sighting reports of today usually don’t get investigated to any depth; consequently, there is little quantitative data in them. Before I studied these books, I established filtering criteria to objectively reject bad data, i.e. irrelevant reports and some untrustworthy reports. Among these criteria were that a UFO had to be in close proximity to the alien sighting, no sightings from children would be used, and no hypnotic recovery cases would be accepted. These criteria are more fully explained in my book, “Alien Radix”. I collected almost 300 good CE3 case studies out of maybe a thousand total, put them into a spreadsheet, and then inspected them for obviously different alien species. Some of the choices were obvious, such as a 3 eyed alien versus a one eyed alien, or an alien needing a breathing helmet versus one walking around helmet free, or a 7 foot alien versus a 3 foot alien. I counted 48 different alien species in these 300 cases. I tried to make this investigation as scientifically objective as I could, and you can see the result. It does not depend on some questionable pundit’s opinion on the matter for it was derived straight from raw case studies with no one’s intervening opinion on the matter. It is what it is. I will admit that it does depend on the truthfulness/accuracy of the original reports which goes without saying because that is the way of all reported phenomena.

There were many case studies that I wanted to use but could not due to may filtering criteria. Some of the kids’ reports fell into this category. After all, kids spend a lot more of their time outdoors than adults do, and that is where the sightings are. There were a couple that I definitely did not want to use but had to, also due to my filtering criteria. For example, there was a case where some guy in Minnesota claimed to have witnessed some beer can shaped and sized robot aliens who emerged from a UFO that was shaped like a V2 rocket. I really hated to include that case at all. This shows that my filtering criteria, which were chosen to increase the veracity of the selected cases, still allowed some stories from nuts and liars (notice that I call hoaxers “liars” for that is what they are) to sneak through. I prefer to think that I rejected more good case studies (true negatives) than I accepted bad ones (false positives.)